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Final Paper
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The Past, Present, And Future Of Data Communications
Throughout history, humankind has depended upon communication systems in order to transmit messages. While it is indisputable that the methods of communication have developed with the progression of humanity�s existence, the need to successfully convey information was as crucial to the nomadic civilizations of the caveman as it is to modern global society. Despite this truth, however, the advance of industry and motorized travel have created a modern world significantly larger and more complex than that of the primitive era. Seemingly, then, the efficient delivery of communication has extended beyond its basic property of conveying messages. For it is apparent that modern society now depends upon accurate communication in order to maintain world order.
One cannot argue that the progression of communication from its primitive stages of cave paintings to today�s electronic, digital, radio, and voice signals, has been a prolonged and arduous maturation. Indeed, the advanced level of data communication has only come to fruition within the past century. Thus, in order to comprehend this most recent technological explosion, one of the quintessential inventions that inspired the age of electronic communication must be examined. More specifically, the 1890 invention of Guglielmo Marconi�s wireless telegraph. Privately educated by professors of science in Italy, it is clear that Marconi did not develop the idea of radio on his own. In fact, Marconi gained a great deal of direction from his studies of physics and electricity and it cannot be ignored that his ideas were greatly impacted by the experiments of his predecessors. For as early as 1820, scientists recognized that some form of invisible energy was being derived from electric current traveling through the air. Despite this belief, however, it would be 60 years before Heinrich Hertz proved that this unseen energy truly did exist. In this 1886 experiment, Hertz developed a mechanized device which generated high voltage sparks between two metal balls. Approximately one meter away from this first device Hertz placed two smaller electrodes, and as the large electric spark passed over the gap, Hertz observed the appearance of a smaller spark on the second instrument. Essentially, then, the experiment served to prove that electro-magnetic energy had traveled through the air and stimulated the second spark. Regardless of this discovery, however, Hertz did not foresee the potential for these limited distance Hertzian (radio) waves.
Marconi refused to accept that Hertzian waves had no potential for communication and in 1894 Marconi began to seriously question the laws of electricity and magnetism defined by the scientific community. Boldly experimenting with Hertz�s conclusions, a 20 year old Marconi began transmitting radio waves by use of a poorly constructed Hertzonian transmitter. Consequently, Marconi was not achieving the results he had expected and he began to re-evaluate the construction of his device. Concluding that a large metal aerial could potentially improve the performance of his transmitter, Marconi connected the aerial to the spark gap and discovered that the electric current was conducted upward, and radiated out as electro-magnetic energy. As he had anticipated, the signals traveled a more substantial distance, and Marconi then connected another aerial planning to send a signal approximately 3 kilometers over a hill. The receiver was placed out of visible distance from the transmitter, and as Marconi had hypothesized, the experiment was a success. Unfortunately, when Marconi exhibited these results to the Italian government, the administration expressed no interest in the device.
In effort to gain financial backing for his device, Marconi brought his results to the British authorities whom received his findings with great interest and issued Marconi a patent for the system. The British government then moved Marconi to the Isle of Wight, where the young physicist demonstrated the significant attributes of wireless to the Royal Navy. While the technology of wireless telegraphy was welcomed and used by the Royal Navy, Marconi wanted to develop the potential of wireless even further. Therefore, Marconi sought to attempt communication across the Atlantic, from Cornwall to Newfoundland.
Despite Marconi�s enthusiasm, many mathematicians believed the success of the experiment would be hindered by the curvature of the earth. Stations and aerials were nevertheless constructed and even after they were destroyed by a natural disaster, Marconi constructed an alternative version within just 2 weeks. So in 1901, in vessel off the North Atlantic, Marconi and his two assistants launched a kite from which hung a vital receiving aerial. The kite flew at altitudes of up to 400 ft. and at mid-day on December 12 Marconi successfully transmitted the Morse code S to his receiver. Thus, proving that a wireless message could indeed be sent over the horizon, Marconi further perfected his discovery. Uncovering the actual transfer of energy from transmitter to receiver, in waves of varying lengths, possessing color of different shades (the radio frequency spectrum), Marconi discovered Kilohertz, Megahertz, and Gigahertz, or what is now known as tuning. For these profound discoveries Marconi was awarded the Nobel Prize for physics in 1909.
Today it is difficult to imagine what it may have been like if Marconi had not reached his specific conclusions about wireless telegraphy. For Marconi is indirectly linked to much of the technological advancements of our time. Would corporations like AT&T and TCI have even been created and would we, for example, be presently concerned with their most recent June 24, 1998 merger? Perhaps not. But today, this merger has the potential to greatly affect our lives as technology governs nearly every aspect of our existence. Thus, when AT&T announced the merger agreement with Tele-Communications, Inc. (TCI) for an all-stock transaction valued at approximately $36 billion, the consumer would be foolish not to wonder what consequence this would have on consumer communication services.
The deal is expected to break the regional Bell telephone companies� stronghold over local phone service. Chairman, C. Michael Armstrong, of AT&T believes that this merger will allow customers to make phone calls over cable, and thus offer them an alternative to using the Bell companies which may monopolize phone service in areas that TCI reaches. AT&T has also revealed that it plans to offer residential customers the opportunity of receiving local, long-distance, cable TV, Internet and data services all through AT&T as TCI is currently upgrading its equipment for two-way transmission. While the deal must still pass anti-trust and state regulators, both AT&T and TCI do not anticipate difficulties in gaining approval of the merger.
Seemingly, though, after each passing day of the initial announcement of the merger, a new dimension of it apparently comes forth. In selling TCI to AT&T, John C. Malone and TCI will still control the Liberty Media Corporation. More significantly, however, "Liberty will get a tax loss of roughly $1.8 billion that can be used to offset future tax bills, and it will get the right to borrow billions without seeking permission from AT&T" (NY Times, 7/27/98). Liberty is thus a tracking stock for AT&T, and after the deal Mr. Malone will effectively control Liberty and can even sell it with nearly no approval from AT&T. What is clear from the deal is that AT&T Consumer Services will provide the broadset of consumer communications services, as this new unit will own and operate the nation�s most extensive local network platform. The new unit will include all cable television systems AT&T is acquiring from TCI in the merger, AT&T�s wireless and related spectrum rights, as well as elements on AT&T�s existing consumer businesses such as its long-distance services and AT&T WorldNet Internet services.
What will further develop from this merger, however, is still difficult to speculate. Nervous investors have left negotiators in a serious effort to work out the details that were not released at the time of the announcement. Many shareholders continue to question if the telecommunications company will spend above the $1.8 billion needed to convert TCI�s cable lines into a two-way network carrying these advanced services. Moreover, the structure of the "tracking stocks" remains unclear to many, and even if the structure is laid out more concretely to investors, analysts believe it will not answer enough of the concerns. If the deal is as successful as both TCI and AT&T believe it will be, the market opportunities for the two corporations are boundless.
For as the April 1998 issue of Scientific American explains, the demand for technology is becoming infinite. Now more than ever the population is participating in an enormous consumption of mobile technology (cellular phones, wireless modems), which represents only a fraction of the applications that are currently available. Therefore, as more infrastructure continues to be built to service these demands for future consumers, companies like AT&T and TCI want to be on the cutting edge. Consequently, this issue returns us to the basis of their merger and the extensive capital opportunities for the future. Thus, while specific predictions for the future of data communications remains unclear, there will be a growing market which companies will continually seek to dominate. The issue then is essentially supply and demand.�
It cannot be ignored that multibillion-dollar commercial satellite projects are currently in progress, complex telecommunications networks based on satellites, aerial platforms, ground transmitters and fiber are currently being designed, and spread-spectrum radio is being advocated. The future for data communications is thus change and it "...will transform everything from interstate commerce to child-care" (Scientific American); changing the way our daily lives are conducted, our nations interact, and simply the way we see ourselves in relation to the world as a whole.
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